Connie Hedegaard's EU is increasingly isolated among the industrialised world bloc
Some of the developing world's biggest greenhouse gas emitters are bidding to delay talks on a new climate agreement.
To the anger of small islands and other vulnerable countries,
India and Brazil are joining rich nations such as the US and Japan in
wanting to start talks on a legal deal no earlier than 2015.
The EU and climate-vulnerable blocs want to start as soon as possible, and have the deal finalised by 2015.
The UN climate summit opens on Monday in Durban, South Africa.
Some observers say small island states, which traditionally
aim their criticism at the industrialised world's big emitters, may
begin "naming and shaming" developing countries that are also delaying
progress.
"They're on the edge of a mess," one experienced delegate told BBC News, "and they may not be able to resolve this mess".
Developing countries will certainly target rich governments
such as Japan, Canada and Russia over their refusal to commit to new
emission cuts under the Kyoto Protocol, whose current targets expire at
the end of next year.
They see this as a breach of previous commitments and of trust.
But some of the most vulnerable nations say the impasse
should not delay talks on a new deal, arguing that to do so would be, in
one delegate's wording, "the politics of mutually-assured destruction".
However, on one of the summit's other main topics - financial
aid for poor countries - there is a strong chance of progress at the
fortnight-long summit.
Seismic shift
“Start Quote
The global response to climate change simply does not have time for advancing self-serving national interests”
End Quote
Mark Roberts
EIA
The politics of the UN climate process are undergoing something of a fundamental transformation.
Increasingly, countries are dividing into one group that
wants a new global treaty as soon as possible - the EU plus lots of
developing countries - and another that prefers a delay and perhaps
something less rigorous than a full treaty.
The divide was evident earlier this month at the Major Economies Forum (MEF) meeting in Arlington, US - the body that includes 17 of the world's highest-polluting nations.
There, the UK and others argued that the Durban summit should
agree to begin work on a new global agreement immediately, to have it
in place by 2015, and operating by 2020 at the very latest.
The US, Russia and Japan were already arguing for a longer timeframe.
But BBC News has learned that at the MEF meeting, Brazil and India took the same position.
Brazil wants the period 2012-15 to be a "reflection phase", while India suggested it should be a "technical/scientific period".
India's emissions are growing as the country develops, and it is working to delay restrictions
China, now the world's biggest emitter, is said by sources to
be more flexible, though its top priority for Durban is the Kyoto
Protocol.
"The planet has no other sustainable alternative other than
to ensure the continuity of the Kyoto Protocol, through a second
commitment period starting in 2013," said Jorge Arguello, leader of the
Argentinian delegation, which this year chairs the powerful G77/China
bloc of 131 nations.
"The adoption of a second commitment period for the reduction
of greenhouse gases emissions under the Kyoto Protocol is not only a
political imperative and a historical responsibility, but a legal
obligation that must be faced as such."
Although the EU does not oppose a second commitment period, other developed nations do.
And as the US left the protocol years ago, nations still
signed on account only for about 15% of global emissions - which is why
there is so much emphasis on a new instrument, with some legal force,
covering all countries.
Cooling wish
The US, Russia, Japan and Canada have all argued for delaying negotiations on this for various domestic political reasons.
But the news that big developing countries are also lobbying for a delay is likely to lead to fireworks in Durban.
Many of
the countries most at risk from climate impacts want to cut emissions
fast enough to hold the global average temperature rise from
pre-industrial times under 1.5C.
Scientific assessments say that for this to happen, global
emissions should peak and begin to fall before 2020, adding urgency to
these nations' quest for a new and effective global agreement.
President Nasheed of the Maldives is virtually the only
leader who has spoken openly of the need for major developing countries
to begin cutting emissions soon.
Equating the need to develop with the right to emit greenhouse gases is, he has said, "rather silly".
But sources in Durban indicate that delegates from other
small developing countries may join him before the fortnight elapses,
and demand more of the big developing nations.
China, Brazil and India are also being blamed for blocking
moves to phase out the climate-warming industrial HFC gases, which small
island states tabled at the Montreal Protocol meeting in Bali last
week.
"The global response to climate change simply does not have
time for advancing self-serving national interests," said Mark Roberts,
international policy advisor for the Environmental Investigation Agency
(EIA).
Funding gap
Sources say, however, that there is real prospect of agreement in Durban on rules and mechanisms for a Green Climate Fund.
Nigerian artist Bright Ugochukwu Eke hopes to raise climate awareness with his exhibit in Durban
This would raise and disburse sums, rising to $100bn per year by 2020, to developing nations.
There is no agreement on where the money should come from.
Developing countries say the public coffers of industrialised
nations should be the main source, whereas western governments say the
bulk must come from private sector sources.
That is unlikely to be resolved until the end of next year.
But finalising the fund's rules in Durban would be a concrete step forward.
Tim Gore, Oxfam's chief policy adviser, said UK Climate
Minister Chris Huhne must push for "getting the money flowing through
the Green Climate Fund that poor people need to fight climate change
now.
"A deal to raise resources from international transport could
be on the table, and Huhne must convince other ministers to strike it,"
he said.
However, there is widespread scepticism about the much
smaller funds - $10bn per year - that developed nations are already
supposed to be contributing under the Fast Start Finance agreement made
in 2009.
Developing countries say only a small fraction of what has
been pledged is genuinely "new and additional", as it is meant to be;
and that little has actually materialised.
The summit may also see a row over the EU's imminent
integration of aviation into the Emission Trading Schemen, which India
and some other developing nations oppose.